What is Neurocrine Biosciences Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Neurocrine Biosciences Inc's reported free cash flow gives $247.59 per share. The share price was $169.14 on November 10, 2026, 32% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $152.89 | -10% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $247.59 | +46% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $423.92 | +151% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $319.29 | $341.64 | $368.97 | $403.12 | $447.04 |
| 8.0% | $265.43 | $279.93 | $297.06 | $317.62 | $342.75 |
| 9.0% | $226.24 | $236.15 | $247.59 | $260.93 | $276.70 |
| 10.0% | $196.53 | $203.58 | $211.56 | $220.69 | $231.23 |
| 11.0% | $173.28 | $178.44 | $184.22 | $190.72 | $198.08 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Neurocrine Biosciences Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (22.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions