What is Mueller Water Products, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $24.28 per share. The share price was $21.63 on September 25, 2026, 11% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.0% | 10.0% | $15.01 | -31% |
| Base | 8.0% | 9.0% | $24.28 | +12% |
| Bull | 13.0% | 8.0% | $41.59 | +92% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $31.04 | $33.12 | $35.65 | $38.82 | $42.89 |
| 8.0% | $25.99 | $27.34 | $28.93 | $30.83 | $33.16 |
| 9.0% | $22.30 | $23.22 | $24.28 | $25.52 | $26.98 |
| 10.0% | $19.50 | $20.15 | $20.89 | $21.74 | $22.72 |
| 11.0% | $17.29 | $17.77 | $18.31 | $18.91 | $19.59 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions