What is Vail Resorts Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Vail Resorts Inc's reported free cash flow gives $121.71 per share. The share price was $136.11 on September 25, 2026, 12% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | $48.95 | -64% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $121.71 | -11% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $266.79 | +96% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $176.12 | $192.82 | $213.24 | $238.75 | $271.55 |
| 8.0% | $135.45 | $146.28 | $159.08 | $174.44 | $193.21 |
| 9.0% | $105.76 | $113.17 | $121.71 | $131.68 | $143.46 |
| 10.0% | $83.17 | $88.44 | $94.41 | $101.23 | $109.10 |
| 11.0% | $65.43 | $69.29 | $73.61 | $78.46 | $83.96 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Vail Resorts Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions