What is Match Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Match Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $74.99 per share. The share price was $39.94 on November 10, 2026, 47% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.0% | 10.0% | $41.86 | +5% |
| Base | 8.0% | 9.0% | $74.99 | +88% |
| Bull | 13.0% | 8.0% | $136.80 | +243% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $99.12 | $106.53 | $115.58 | $126.90 | $141.45 |
| 8.0% | $81.08 | $85.89 | $91.56 | $98.37 | $106.70 |
| 9.0% | $67.91 | $71.20 | $74.99 | $79.41 | $84.63 |
| 10.0% | $57.89 | $60.23 | $62.87 | $65.90 | $69.39 |
| 11.0% | $50.02 | $51.73 | $53.65 | $55.80 | $58.24 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Match Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions