What is Match Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Match Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $74.44 per share. The share price was $40.55 on September 25, 2026, 46% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.0% | 10.0% | $41.31 | +2% |
| Base | 8.0% | 9.0% | $74.44 | +84% |
| Bull | 13.0% | 8.0% | $136.25 | +236% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $98.57 | $105.98 | $115.03 | $126.35 | $140.90 |
| 8.0% | $80.53 | $85.34 | $91.01 | $97.82 | $106.15 |
| 9.0% | $67.36 | $70.65 | $74.44 | $78.86 | $84.08 |
| 10.0% | $57.34 | $59.68 | $62.32 | $65.35 | $68.84 |
| 11.0% | $49.47 | $51.18 | $53.10 | $55.25 | $57.69 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Match Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions