What is Msc Industrial Direct Co Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Msc Industrial Direct Co Inc's reported free cash flow gives $64.36 per share. The share price was $121.22 on September 25, 2026, 88% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -1.5% | 10.0% | $37.60 | -69% |
| Base | 3.5% | 9.0% | $64.36 | -47% |
| Bull | 8.5% | 8.0% | $117.71 | -3% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $83.75 | $89.61 | $96.79 | $105.75 | $117.28 |
| 8.0% | $69.32 | $73.12 | $77.62 | $83.02 | $89.61 |
| 9.0% | $58.76 | $61.36 | $64.36 | $67.86 | $72.00 |
| 10.0% | $50.69 | $52.54 | $54.64 | $57.04 | $59.80 |
| 11.0% | $44.34 | $45.70 | $47.22 | $48.92 | $50.85 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Msc Industrial Direct Co Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (3.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions