What is MSCI Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on MSCI Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $516.40 per share. The share price was $551.36 on September 25, 2026, 7% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 8.0% | 10.0% | $283.80 | -49% |
| Base | 13.0% | 9.0% | $516.40 | -6% |
| Bull | 18.0% | 8.0% | $949.85 | +72% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $690.70 | $744.82 | $810.97 | $893.65 | $999.95 |
| 8.0% | $559.94 | $595.04 | $636.51 | $686.28 | $747.12 |
| 9.0% | $464.72 | $488.71 | $516.40 | $548.70 | $586.88 |
| 10.0% | $392.44 | $409.51 | $428.85 | $450.95 | $476.45 |
| 11.0% | $335.84 | $348.35 | $362.33 | $378.06 | $395.89 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at MSCI Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (13.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions