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DCF valuation

What is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. worth?

With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $476.43 per share. The share price was $1,367.43 on September 25, 2026, 187% above that value.

Inputs from the filings

Free cash flow, fiscal 2025
$666.2M
Average free cash flow, last 5 years
$460.5M
Cash
$1.01B
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Debt
$0
not reported, counted as 0
Diluted shares, fiscal 2025
48,309,000
Revenue growth per year, last 5 years
27.0%

Three sets of assumptions

CaseGrowth yrs 1-5Growth yrs 6-10After year 10Discount rateValue per shareValue vs price
Bear10.0%6.0%2.0%10.0%$297.65-78%
Base15.0%9.0%2.5%9.0%$476.43-65%
Bull20.0%11.5%3.0%8.0%$809.34-41%

Sensitivity: base case value per share

Discount rate down the side, growth after year 10 across the top. Everything else as in the base case.

1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.0%$611.79$654.00$705.58$770.07$852.97
8.0%$510.11$537.48$569.83$608.64$656.09
9.0%$436.13$454.84$476.43$501.62$531.40
10.0%$380.03$393.34$408.42$425.66$445.54
11.0%$336.13$345.89$356.79$369.06$382.96

Where the presets come from

Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (27.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.

Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.

Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.

This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.

Adjust the assumptions

Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.

Adjust the assumptions

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. company page