What is Altria Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Altria Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $49.99 per share. The share price was $68.82 on September 25, 2026, 38% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -7.5% | 10.0% | $26.63 | -61% |
| Base | -2.5% | 9.0% | $49.99 | -27% |
| Bull | 2.5% | 8.0% | $95.43 | +39% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $65.83 | $70.53 | $76.27 | $83.45 | $92.68 |
| 8.0% | $54.12 | $57.16 | $60.76 | $65.08 | $70.36 |
| 9.0% | $45.50 | $47.59 | $49.99 | $52.79 | $56.11 |
| 10.0% | $38.90 | $40.38 | $42.06 | $43.98 | $46.20 |
| 11.0% | $33.68 | $34.76 | $35.98 | $37.34 | $38.89 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Altria Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-2.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions