What is Altria Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Altria Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $50.49 per share. The share price was $76.07 on November 10, 2026, 51% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -7.5% | 10.0% | $27.13 | -64% |
| Base | -2.5% | 9.0% | $50.49 | -34% |
| Bull | 2.5% | 8.0% | $95.94 | +26% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $66.33 | $71.03 | $76.77 | $83.95 | $93.18 |
| 8.0% | $54.62 | $57.66 | $61.27 | $65.59 | $70.87 |
| 9.0% | $46.01 | $48.09 | $50.49 | $53.30 | $56.61 |
| 10.0% | $39.40 | $40.89 | $42.57 | $44.48 | $46.70 |
| 11.0% | $34.18 | $35.26 | $36.48 | $37.84 | $39.39 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Altria Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-2.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions