What is Monster Beverage Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Monster Beverage Corp's reported free cash flow gives $58.85 per share. The share price was $43.11 on September 25, 2026, 27% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.5% | 10.0% | $37.30 | -13% |
| Base | 12.5% | 9.0% | $58.85 | +37% |
| Bull | 17.5% | 8.0% | $101.79 | +136% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $75.34 | $80.45 | $86.69 | $94.50 | $104.53 |
| 8.0% | $62.98 | $66.29 | $70.20 | $74.90 | $80.65 |
| 9.0% | $53.97 | $56.23 | $58.85 | $61.90 | $65.50 |
| 10.0% | $47.13 | $48.74 | $50.57 | $52.65 | $55.06 |
| 11.0% | $41.77 | $42.95 | $44.27 | $45.76 | $47.44 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Monster Beverage Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (12.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions