What is Martin Marietta Materials Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Martin Marietta Materials Inc's reported free cash flow gives $207.50 per share. The share price was $484.30 on September 25, 2026, 133% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.5% | 10.0% | $93.93 | -81% |
| Base | 5.5% | 9.0% | $207.50 | -57% |
| Bull | 10.5% | 8.0% | $433.93 | -10% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $290.86 | $316.24 | $347.25 | $386.03 | $435.88 |
| 8.0% | $228.70 | $245.16 | $264.61 | $287.95 | $316.48 |
| 9.0% | $183.26 | $194.51 | $207.50 | $222.65 | $240.55 |
| 10.0% | $148.62 | $156.62 | $165.69 | $176.06 | $188.02 |
| 11.0% | $121.37 | $127.23 | $133.79 | $141.17 | $149.53 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Martin Marietta Materials Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions