What is Markel Group Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Markel Group Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $4,932.77 per share. The share price was $1,979.92 on November 10, 2026, 60% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.0% | 10.0% | $2,994.11 | +51% |
| Base | 10.0% | 9.0% | $4,932.77 | +149% |
| Bull | 15.0% | 8.0% | $8,548.82 | +332% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $6,361.96 | $6,802.68 | $7,341.33 | $8,014.64 | $8,880.32 |
| 8.0% | $5,292.08 | $5,577.89 | $5,915.65 | $6,320.97 | $6,816.36 |
| 9.0% | $4,511.88 | $4,707.29 | $4,932.77 | $5,195.82 | $5,506.69 |
| 10.0% | $3,918.83 | $4,057.79 | $4,215.28 | $4,395.27 | $4,602.95 |
| 11.0% | $3,453.58 | $3,555.45 | $3,669.31 | $3,797.41 | $3,942.58 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Markel Group Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions