What is Markel Group Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Markel Group Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $4,918.04 per share. The share price was $1,727.73 on September 25, 2026, 65% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.0% | 10.0% | $2,979.39 | +72% |
| Base | 10.0% | 9.0% | $4,918.04 | +185% |
| Bull | 15.0% | 8.0% | $8,534.09 | +394% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $6,347.24 | $6,787.95 | $7,326.60 | $7,999.91 | $8,865.60 |
| 8.0% | $5,277.36 | $5,563.16 | $5,900.92 | $6,306.24 | $6,801.63 |
| 9.0% | $4,497.16 | $4,692.57 | $4,918.04 | $5,181.09 | $5,491.97 |
| 10.0% | $3,904.10 | $4,043.07 | $4,200.56 | $4,380.55 | $4,588.23 |
| 11.0% | $3,438.85 | $3,540.73 | $3,654.59 | $3,782.68 | $3,927.85 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Markel Group Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions