What is Mgp Ingredients Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Mgp Ingredients Inc's reported free cash flow gives $55.74 per share. The share price was $17.12 on October 30, 2026, 69% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $29.09 | +70% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $55.74 | +226% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $108.88 | +536% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $75.43 | $81.44 | $88.79 | $97.97 | $109.77 |
| 8.0% | $60.74 | $64.64 | $69.24 | $74.77 | $81.53 |
| 9.0% | $50.00 | $52.67 | $55.74 | $59.33 | $63.57 |
| 10.0% | $41.83 | $43.72 | $45.87 | $48.32 | $51.16 |
| 11.0% | $35.40 | $36.78 | $38.34 | $40.08 | $42.06 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Mgp Ingredients Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions