What is Mistras Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Mistras Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives -$0.33 per share. The share price was $20.17 on November 10, 2026, 6,276% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -1.0% | 10.0% | -$2.04 | -110% |
| Base | 4.0% | 9.0% | -$0.33 | -102% |
| Bull | 9.0% | 8.0% | $2.88 | -86% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $0.89 | $1.26 | $1.72 | $2.28 | $3.01 |
| 8.0% | -$0.02 | $0.22 | $0.51 | $0.85 | $1.27 |
| 9.0% | -$0.68 | -$0.52 | -$0.33 | -$0.11 | $0.16 |
| 10.0% | -$1.19 | -$1.07 | -$0.94 | -$0.79 | -$0.61 |
| 11.0% | -$1.59 | -$1.50 | -$1.41 | -$1.30 | -$1.18 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Mistras Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions