What is Mistras Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Mistras Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives -$0.18 per share. The share price was $21.52 on September 25, 2026, 12,001% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -1.0% | 10.0% | -$1.90 | -109% |
| Base | 4.0% | 9.0% | -$0.18 | -101% |
| Bull | 9.0% | 8.0% | $3.02 | -86% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1.04 | $1.41 | $1.86 | $2.43 | $3.16 |
| 8.0% | $0.13 | $0.37 | $0.65 | $0.99 | $1.41 |
| 9.0% | -$0.53 | -$0.37 | -$0.18 | $0.04 | $0.30 |
| 10.0% | -$1.04 | -$0.92 | -$0.79 | -$0.64 | -$0.47 |
| 11.0% | -$1.44 | -$1.36 | -$1.26 | -$1.15 | -$1.03 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Mistras Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions