What is Mercadolibre Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Mercadolibre Inc's reported free cash flow gives $6,883.11 per share. The share price was $1,752.61 on September 25, 2026, 75% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $4,128.18 | +136% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $6,883.11 | +293% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $12,012.91 | +585% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $8,968.92 | $9,619.29 | $10,414.17 | $11,407.79 | $12,685.29 |
| 8.0% | $7,402.04 | $7,823.80 | $8,322.24 | $8,920.38 | $9,651.43 |
| 9.0% | $6,262.02 | $6,550.38 | $6,883.11 | $7,271.30 | $7,730.07 |
| 10.0% | $5,397.57 | $5,602.64 | $5,835.05 | $6,100.67 | $6,407.14 |
| 11.0% | $4,721.18 | $4,871.52 | $5,039.55 | $5,228.58 | $5,442.81 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Mercadolibre Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (48.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions