What is Medpace Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Medpace Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $780.00 per share. The share price was $618.88 on September 25, 2026, 21% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $480.61 | -22% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $780.00 | +26% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $1,337.48 | +116% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1,006.68 | $1,077.35 | $1,163.74 | $1,271.72 | $1,410.55 |
| 8.0% | $836.40 | $882.23 | $936.40 | $1,001.40 | $1,080.85 |
| 9.0% | $712.50 | $743.84 | $780.00 | $822.19 | $872.04 |
| 10.0% | $618.56 | $640.85 | $666.10 | $694.97 | $728.28 |
| 11.0% | $545.05 | $561.39 | $579.65 | $600.19 | $623.48 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Medpace Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (22.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions