What is Medpace Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Medpace Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $786.86 per share. The share price was $672.93 on November 9, 2026, 14% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $487.47 | -28% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $786.86 | +17% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $1,344.34 | +100% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1,013.54 | $1,084.22 | $1,170.60 | $1,278.58 | $1,417.41 |
| 8.0% | $843.26 | $889.09 | $943.26 | $1,008.26 | $1,087.71 |
| 9.0% | $719.37 | $750.70 | $786.86 | $829.05 | $878.91 |
| 10.0% | $625.42 | $647.71 | $672.97 | $701.83 | $735.14 |
| 11.0% | $551.92 | $568.25 | $586.51 | $607.06 | $630.34 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Medpace Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (22.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions