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Stocks MCHP DCF valuation

DCF valuation

What is Microchip Technology Inc worth?

With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Microchip Technology Inc's reported free cash flow gives $8.98 per share. The share price was $78.69 on September 25, 2026, 776% above that value.

Inputs from the filings

Free cash flow, fiscal 2026
$871M
Average free cash flow, last 5 years
$1.97B
Cash
$272.3M
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Debt
$5.36B
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Diluted shares, fiscal 2026
545,200,000
Revenue growth per year, last 5 years
-2.8%

Three sets of assumptions

CaseGrowth yrs 1-5Growth yrs 6-10After year 10Discount rateValue per shareValue vs price
Bear-8.0%-3.0%2.0%10.0%$2.21-97%
Base-3.0%-0.0%2.5%9.0%$8.98-89%
Bull2.0%2.5%3.0%8.0%$21.60-73%

Sensitivity: base case value per share

Discount rate down the side, growth after year 10 across the top. Everything else as in the base case.

1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.0%$13.56$14.91$16.57$18.64$21.31
8.0%$10.17$11.05$12.09$13.34$14.86
9.0%$7.68$8.28$8.98$9.79$10.75
10.0%$5.78$6.20$6.69$7.24$7.88
11.0%$4.27$4.58$4.93$5.32$5.77

Where the presets come from

Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Microchip Technology Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-2.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.

Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.

Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.

This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.

Adjust the assumptions

Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.

Adjust the assumptions

Microchip Technology Inc company page