What is McDonalds Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on McDonalds Corp's reported free cash flow gives $154,068,842.08 per share. The share price was $282.17 on November 10, 2026, 100% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.0% | 10.0% | $73,973,338.92 | +26,215,777% |
| Base | 7.0% | 9.0% | $154,068,842.08 | +54,601,325% |
| Bull | 12.0% | 8.0% | $303,570,896.50 | +107,584,298% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $212,092,389.16 | $229,849,828.14 | $251,553,364.66 | $278,682,785.31 | $313,563,469.01 |
| 8.0% | $168,759,680.85 | $180,275,335.11 | $193,884,744.69 | $210,216,036.19 | $230,176,503.57 |
| 9.0% | $137,110,479.45 | $144,984,004.96 | $154,068,842.08 | $164,667,818.73 | $177,193,882.04 |
| 10.0% | $113,012,540.69 | $118,611,714.45 | $124,957,444.70 | $132,209,707.84 | $140,577,703.78 |
| 11.0% | $94,074,200.19 | $98,179,020.02 | $102,766,759.83 | $107,927,967.12 | $113,777,335.38 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at McDonalds Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions