What is McDonalds Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on McDonalds Corp's reported free cash flow gives $153,490,952.64 per share. The share price was $236.50 on September 25, 2026, 100% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.0% | 10.0% | $73,395,449.47 | +31,033,917% |
| Base | 7.0% | 9.0% | $153,490,952.64 | +64,900,937% |
| Bull | 12.0% | 8.0% | $302,993,007.05 | +128,115,336% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $211,514,499.71 | $229,271,938.69 | $250,975,475.21 | $278,104,895.86 | $312,985,579.56 |
| 8.0% | $168,181,791.40 | $179,697,445.66 | $193,306,855.24 | $209,638,146.74 | $229,598,614.12 |
| 9.0% | $136,532,590.00 | $144,406,115.51 | $153,490,952.64 | $164,089,929.28 | $176,615,992.60 |
| 10.0% | $112,434,651.25 | $118,033,825.00 | $124,379,555.25 | $131,631,818.40 | $139,999,814.34 |
| 11.0% | $93,496,310.74 | $97,601,130.57 | $102,188,870.38 | $107,350,077.67 | $113,199,445.94 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at McDonalds Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions