What is Matson, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Matson, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $95.58 per share. The share price was $205.71 on November 10, 2026, 115% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.0% | 10.0% | $57.47 | -72% |
| Base | 7.0% | 9.0% | $95.58 | -54% |
| Bull | 12.0% | 8.0% | $166.72 | -19% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $123.19 | $131.64 | $141.97 | $154.88 | $171.48 |
| 8.0% | $102.57 | $108.05 | $114.53 | $122.30 | $131.80 |
| 9.0% | $87.51 | $91.26 | $95.58 | $100.62 | $106.58 |
| 10.0% | $76.04 | $78.71 | $81.73 | $85.18 | $89.16 |
| 11.0% | $67.03 | $68.98 | $71.17 | $73.62 | $76.41 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Matson, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions