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Stocks MATX DCF valuation

DCF valuation

What is Matson, Inc. worth?

With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Matson, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $92.08 per share. The share price was $224.66 on September 25, 2026, 144% above that value.

Inputs from the filings

Free cash flow, fiscal 2025
$153.7M
Cash
$119.3M
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Debt
$341.3M
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Diluted shares, fiscal 2025
32,200,000
Revenue growth per year, last 5 years
7.0%

Three sets of assumptions

CaseGrowth yrs 1-5Growth yrs 6-10After year 10Discount rateValue per shareValue vs price
Bear2.0%2.0%2.0%10.0%$53.97-76%
Base7.0%5.0%2.5%9.0%$92.08-59%
Bull12.0%7.5%3.0%8.0%$163.22-27%

Sensitivity: base case value per share

Discount rate down the side, growth after year 10 across the top. Everything else as in the base case.

1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.0%$119.69$128.14$138.47$151.38$167.98
8.0%$99.07$104.55$111.03$118.80$128.30
9.0%$84.01$87.76$92.08$97.12$103.08
10.0%$72.54$75.21$78.23$81.68$85.66
11.0%$63.53$65.48$67.67$70.12$72.91

Where the presets come from

Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Matson, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.

Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.

Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.

This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.

Adjust the assumptions

Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.

Adjust the assumptions

Matson, Inc. company page