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DCF valuation

What is Lsb Industries, Inc. worth?

With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Lsb Industries, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $1.23 per share. The share price was $11.16 on November 10, 2026, 809% above that value.

Inputs from the filings

Free cash flow, fiscal 2025
$18.1M
Average free cash flow, last 5 years
$86.9M
Cash
$37.7M
balance sheet of September 30, 2026
Debt
$442.2M
balance sheet of September 30, 2026
Diluted shares, fiscal 2025
72,361,000
Revenue growth per year, last 5 years
11.9%

Three sets of assumptions

CaseGrowth yrs 1-5Growth yrs 6-10After year 10Discount rateValue per shareValue vs price
Bear7.0%4.5%2.0%10.0%-$1.36-112%
Base12.0%7.0%2.5%9.0%$1.23-89%
Bull17.0%10.0%3.0%8.0%$6.38-43%

Sensitivity: base case value per share

Discount rate down the side, growth after year 10 across the top. Everything else as in the base case.

1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.0%$3.20$3.81$4.56$5.49$6.69
8.0%$1.72$2.12$2.59$3.15$3.83
9.0%$0.64$0.92$1.23$1.59$2.02
10.0%-$0.17$0.02$0.24$0.49$0.77
11.0%-$0.82-$0.67-$0.52-$0.34-$0.14

Where the presets come from

Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Lsb Industries, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.

Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.

Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.

This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.

Adjust the assumptions

Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.

Adjust the assumptions

Lsb Industries, Inc. company page