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DCF valuation

What is Lumen Technologies, Inc. worth?

With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Lumen Technologies, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives -$7.60 per share. The share price was $5.71 on September 25, 2026, 175% below that value.

Inputs from the filings

Free cash flow, fiscal 2025
$371M
Average free cash flow, last 5 years
$1.17B
Cash
$1.88B
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Debt
$13.21B
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Diluted shares, fiscal 2025
994,548,000
Revenue growth per year, last 5 years
-9.7%

Three sets of assumptions

CaseGrowth yrs 1-5Growth yrs 6-10After year 10Discount rateValue per shareValue vs price
Bear-10.0%-4.0%2.0%10.0%-$8.98-257%
Base-5.0%-1.0%2.5%9.0%-$7.60-233%
Bull0.0%1.5%3.0%8.0%-$5.01-188%

Sensitivity: base case value per share

Discount rate down the side, growth after year 10 across the top. Everything else as in the base case.

1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.0%-$6.67-$6.40-$6.07-$5.66-$5.12
8.0%-$7.35-$7.18-$6.97-$6.72-$6.41
9.0%-$7.86-$7.73-$7.60-$7.43-$7.24
10.0%-$8.24-$8.15-$8.06-$7.95-$7.82
11.0%-$8.55-$8.48-$8.41-$8.33-$8.24

Where the presets come from

Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Lumen Technologies, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-9.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.

Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.

Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.

This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.

Adjust the assumptions

Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.

Adjust the assumptions

Lumen Technologies, Inc. company page