What is lululemon athletica inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on lululemon athletica inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $267.42 per share. The share price was $101.30 on September 25, 2026, 62% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $167.06 | +65% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $267.42 | +164% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $454.29 | +348% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $343.40 | $367.09 | $396.05 | $432.24 | $478.78 |
| 8.0% | $286.32 | $301.69 | $319.84 | $341.63 | $368.26 |
| 9.0% | $244.80 | $255.30 | $267.42 | $281.56 | $298.27 |
| 10.0% | $213.31 | $220.78 | $229.24 | $238.92 | $250.08 |
| 11.0% | $188.67 | $194.14 | $200.26 | $207.15 | $214.95 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at lululemon athletica inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (20.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions