What is Lam Research Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Lam Research Corp's reported free cash flow gives $95.29 per share. The share price was $222.39 on November 10, 2026, 133% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.5% | 10.0% | $60.37 | -73% |
| Base | 9.5% | 9.0% | $95.29 | -57% |
| Bull | 14.5% | 8.0% | $164.89 | -26% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $121.55 | $129.63 | $139.51 | $151.85 | $167.72 |
| 8.0% | $101.90 | $107.14 | $113.34 | $120.77 | $129.85 |
| 9.0% | $87.57 | $91.15 | $95.29 | $100.11 | $105.81 |
| 10.0% | $76.67 | $79.22 | $82.10 | $85.40 | $89.21 |
| 11.0% | $68.11 | $69.98 | $72.07 | $74.42 | $77.08 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Lam Research Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions