What is El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $13.60 per share. The share price was $14.09 on September 25, 2026, 4% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.0% | 10.0% | $8.22 | -42% |
| Base | 3.0% | 9.0% | $13.60 | -3% |
| Bull | 8.0% | 8.0% | $23.65 | +68% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $17.40 | $18.55 | $19.96 | $21.72 | $23.98 |
| 8.0% | $14.57 | $15.32 | $16.20 | $17.26 | $18.55 |
| 9.0% | $12.50 | $13.01 | $13.60 | $14.29 | $15.10 |
| 10.0% | $10.92 | $11.28 | $11.70 | $12.17 | $12.71 |
| 11.0% | $9.68 | $9.94 | $10.24 | $10.57 | $10.95 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions