What is Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $123.11 per share. The share price was $37.48 on September 25, 2026, 70% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $82.71 | +121% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $123.11 | +228% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $198.34 | +429% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $153.70 | $163.24 | $174.89 | $189.47 | $208.20 |
| 8.0% | $130.72 | $136.91 | $144.22 | $152.99 | $163.71 |
| 9.0% | $114.00 | $118.23 | $123.11 | $128.80 | $135.53 |
| 10.0% | $101.32 | $104.33 | $107.74 | $111.63 | $116.13 |
| 11.0% | $91.40 | $93.61 | $96.07 | $98.84 | $101.99 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 3 fiscal years (78.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions