What is Lockheed Martin Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Lockheed Martin Corp's reported free cash flow gives $412.68 per share. The share price was $519.56 on September 25, 2026, 26% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.0% | 10.0% | $228.68 | -56% |
| Base | 3.0% | 9.0% | $412.68 | -21% |
| Bull | 8.0% | 8.0% | $756.26 | +46% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $542.63 | $581.95 | $630.01 | $690.08 | $767.32 |
| 8.0% | $445.92 | $471.42 | $501.56 | $537.72 | $581.92 |
| 9.0% | $375.13 | $392.56 | $412.68 | $436.15 | $463.88 |
| 10.0% | $321.09 | $333.48 | $347.54 | $363.59 | $382.12 |
| 11.0% | $278.50 | $287.59 | $297.75 | $309.18 | $322.13 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Lockheed Martin Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions