What is Lkq Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Lkq Corp's reported free cash flow gives $41.69 per share. The share price was $20.19 on November 10, 2026, 52% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -1.5% | 10.0% | $21.28 | +5% |
| Base | 3.5% | 9.0% | $41.69 | +106% |
| Bull | 8.5% | 8.0% | $82.36 | +308% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $56.47 | $60.94 | $66.41 | $73.24 | $82.03 |
| 8.0% | $45.47 | $48.37 | $51.80 | $55.91 | $60.94 |
| 9.0% | $37.41 | $39.40 | $41.69 | $44.36 | $47.51 |
| 10.0% | $31.27 | $32.68 | $34.28 | $36.10 | $38.21 |
| 11.0% | $26.43 | $27.46 | $28.62 | $29.92 | $31.39 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Lkq Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (3.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions