What is Lkq Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Lkq Corp's reported free cash flow gives $40.77 per share. The share price was $23.29 on September 25, 2026, 43% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -1.5% | 10.0% | $20.37 | -13% |
| Base | 3.5% | 9.0% | $40.77 | +75% |
| Bull | 8.5% | 8.0% | $81.44 | +250% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $55.55 | $60.02 | $65.49 | $72.33 | $81.12 |
| 8.0% | $44.55 | $47.45 | $50.88 | $55.00 | $60.02 |
| 9.0% | $36.50 | $38.48 | $40.77 | $43.44 | $46.60 |
| 10.0% | $30.35 | $31.76 | $33.36 | $35.19 | $37.30 |
| 11.0% | $25.51 | $26.54 | $27.70 | $29.00 | $30.47 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Lkq Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (3.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions