What is Lumentum Holdings Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $113.07 per share. The share price was $941.65 on September 25, 2026, 733% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.5% | 10.0% | $72.19 | -92% |
| Base | 11.5% | 9.0% | $113.07 | -88% |
| Bull | 16.5% | 8.0% | $194.55 | -79% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $144.18 | $153.79 | $165.55 | $180.24 | $199.13 |
| 8.0% | $120.87 | $127.11 | $134.48 | $143.32 | $154.13 |
| 9.0% | $103.89 | $108.15 | $113.07 | $118.81 | $125.60 |
| 10.0% | $90.99 | $94.02 | $97.45 | $101.38 | $105.91 |
| 11.0% | $80.87 | $83.09 | $85.58 | $88.37 | $91.54 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions