What is Lamar Advertising Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Lamar Advertising Co's reported free cash flow gives $108.46 per share. The share price was $143.98 on September 25, 2026, 33% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $54.92 | -62% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $108.46 | -25% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $215.21 | +49% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $148.26 | $160.44 | $175.33 | $193.94 | $217.87 |
| 8.0% | $118.54 | $126.43 | $135.77 | $146.97 | $160.67 |
| 9.0% | $96.83 | $102.23 | $108.46 | $115.73 | $124.33 |
| 10.0% | $80.30 | $84.14 | $88.50 | $93.47 | $99.21 |
| 11.0% | $67.32 | $70.13 | $73.28 | $76.82 | $80.83 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Lamar Advertising Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions