What is Krystal Biotech, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Krystal Biotech, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $223.85 per share. The share price was $306.50 on November 10, 2026, 37% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $142.07 | -54% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $223.85 | -27% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $376.11 | +23% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $285.76 | $305.06 | $328.66 | $358.15 | $396.07 |
| 8.0% | $239.25 | $251.77 | $266.56 | $284.32 | $306.02 |
| 9.0% | $205.41 | $213.97 | $223.85 | $235.37 | $248.99 |
| 10.0% | $179.75 | $185.84 | $192.74 | $200.62 | $209.72 |
| 11.0% | $159.67 | $164.14 | $169.12 | $174.74 | $181.09 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Krystal Biotech, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 2 fiscal years (177.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions