What is Krystal Biotech, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Krystal Biotech, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $222.67 per share. The share price was $345.82 on September 25, 2026, 55% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $140.90 | -59% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $222.67 | -36% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $374.94 | +8% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $284.59 | $303.89 | $327.49 | $356.98 | $394.90 |
| 8.0% | $238.08 | $250.60 | $265.39 | $283.15 | $304.85 |
| 9.0% | $204.24 | $212.80 | $222.67 | $234.20 | $247.81 |
| 10.0% | $178.58 | $184.67 | $191.57 | $199.45 | $208.55 |
| 11.0% | $158.50 | $162.97 | $167.95 | $173.56 | $179.92 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Krystal Biotech, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 2 fiscal years (177.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions