What is Kroger Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Kroger Co's reported free cash flow gives $60.52 per share. The share price was $58.74 on September 25, 2026, 3% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -3.0% | 10.0% | $29.71 | -49% |
| Base | 2.0% | 9.0% | $60.52 | +3% |
| Bull | 7.0% | 8.0% | $118.04 | +101% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $82.13 | $88.64 | $96.61 | $106.57 | $119.37 |
| 8.0% | $66.06 | $70.29 | $75.28 | $81.28 | $88.60 |
| 9.0% | $54.29 | $57.18 | $60.52 | $64.41 | $69.01 |
| 10.0% | $45.30 | $47.36 | $49.69 | $52.35 | $55.42 |
| 11.0% | $38.21 | $39.72 | $41.40 | $43.30 | $45.45 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Kroger Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions