What is Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $1,403.61 per share. The share price was $397.72 on November 10, 2026, 72% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $851.75 | +114% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $1,403.61 | +253% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $2,431.19 | +511% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1,821.43 | $1,951.71 | $2,110.94 | $2,309.97 | $2,565.88 |
| 8.0% | $1,507.56 | $1,592.04 | $1,691.89 | $1,811.71 | $1,958.15 |
| 9.0% | $1,279.19 | $1,336.96 | $1,403.61 | $1,481.37 | $1,573.27 |
| 10.0% | $1,106.03 | $1,147.11 | $1,193.67 | $1,246.87 | $1,308.27 |
| 11.0% | $970.54 | $1,000.66 | $1,034.31 | $1,072.18 | $1,115.09 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (32.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions