What is KinderCare Learning Companies, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on KinderCare Learning Companies, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $14.14 per share. The share price was $2.12 on September 25, 2026, 85% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.0% | 10.0% | $6.22 | +193% |
| Base | 8.0% | 9.0% | $14.14 | +567% |
| Bull | 13.0% | 8.0% | $28.91 | +1,263% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $19.90 | $21.67 | $23.84 | $26.54 | $30.02 |
| 8.0% | $15.59 | $16.74 | $18.10 | $19.72 | $21.71 |
| 9.0% | $12.45 | $13.23 | $14.14 | $15.19 | $16.44 |
| 10.0% | $10.05 | $10.61 | $11.24 | $11.96 | $12.80 |
| 11.0% | $8.17 | $8.58 | $9.04 | $9.55 | $10.13 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at KinderCare Learning Companies, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 3 fiscal years (8.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions