What is Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $75.90 per share. The share price was $42.26 on November 10, 2026, 44% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $34.26 | -19% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $75.90 | +80% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $153.42 | +263% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $107.42 | $117.24 | $129.26 | $144.27 | $163.58 |
| 8.0% | $83.74 | $90.11 | $97.64 | $106.68 | $117.73 |
| 9.0% | $66.51 | $70.87 | $75.90 | $81.76 | $88.69 |
| 10.0% | $53.45 | $56.54 | $60.06 | $64.07 | $68.70 |
| 11.0% | $43.22 | $45.50 | $48.04 | $50.89 | $54.13 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (21.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions