What is Keycorp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Keycorp's reported free cash flow gives $20.94 per share. The share price was $21.34 on November 10, 2026, 2% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.5% | 10.0% | $9.62 | -55% |
| Base | 2.5% | 9.0% | $20.94 | -2% |
| Bull | 7.5% | 8.0% | $42.97 | +101% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $28.89 | $31.29 | $34.23 | $37.89 | $42.61 |
| 8.0% | $22.98 | $24.53 | $26.37 | $28.58 | $31.28 |
| 9.0% | $18.64 | $19.71 | $20.94 | $22.37 | $24.06 |
| 10.0% | $15.34 | $16.09 | $16.95 | $17.93 | $19.06 |
| 11.0% | $12.73 | $13.28 | $13.90 | $14.60 | $15.39 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Keycorp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions