What is Keycorp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Keycorp's reported free cash flow gives $21.55 per share. The share price was $20.61 on September 25, 2026, 4% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.5% | 10.0% | $10.23 | -50% |
| Base | 2.5% | 9.0% | $21.55 | +5% |
| Bull | 7.5% | 8.0% | $43.58 | +111% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $29.50 | $31.90 | $34.84 | $38.51 | $43.22 |
| 8.0% | $23.59 | $25.15 | $26.98 | $29.19 | $31.89 |
| 9.0% | $19.26 | $20.32 | $21.55 | $22.98 | $24.67 |
| 10.0% | $15.95 | $16.70 | $17.56 | $18.54 | $19.67 |
| 11.0% | $13.34 | $13.89 | $14.51 | $15.21 | $16.00 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Keycorp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions