What is Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $6.40 per share. The share price was $37.40 on November 10, 2026, 484% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | -$2.39 | -106% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $6.40 | -83% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $23.94 | -36% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $12.94 | $14.94 | $17.39 | $20.45 | $24.38 |
| 8.0% | $8.06 | $9.36 | $10.89 | $12.73 | $14.98 |
| 9.0% | $4.49 | $5.38 | $6.40 | $7.60 | $9.01 |
| 10.0% | $1.78 | $2.41 | $3.13 | $3.94 | $4.89 |
| 11.0% | -$0.35 | $0.11 | $0.63 | $1.21 | $1.87 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions