What is KB Home worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on KB Home's reported free cash flow gives $96.06 per share. The share price was $48.01 on September 25, 2026, 50% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | $60.93 | +27% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $96.06 | +100% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $166.10 | +246% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $122.33 | $130.39 | $140.24 | $152.56 | $168.40 |
| 8.0% | $102.69 | $107.92 | $114.10 | $121.51 | $130.58 |
| 9.0% | $88.36 | $91.93 | $96.06 | $100.87 | $106.56 |
| 10.0% | $77.45 | $79.99 | $82.88 | $86.17 | $89.97 |
| 11.0% | $68.89 | $70.75 | $72.83 | $75.18 | $77.83 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at KB Home's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions