What is Johnson Outdoors Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Johnson Outdoors Inc's reported free cash flow gives $70.78 per share. The share price was $44.43 on September 25, 2026, 37% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -5.0% | 10.0% | $50.64 | +14% |
| Base | -0.0% | 9.0% | $70.78 | +59% |
| Bull | 5.0% | 8.0% | $108.40 | +144% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $84.72 | $88.89 | $94.00 | $100.38 | $108.58 |
| 8.0% | $74.38 | $77.09 | $80.29 | $84.13 | $88.82 |
| 9.0% | $66.80 | $68.65 | $70.78 | $73.28 | $76.22 |
| 10.0% | $60.99 | $62.31 | $63.80 | $65.51 | $67.48 |
| 11.0% | $56.41 | $57.38 | $58.46 | $59.67 | $61.05 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Johnson Outdoors Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-0.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions