What is Johnson Controls International plc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Johnson Controls International plc's reported free cash flow gives $34.99 per share. The share price was $150.20 on September 25, 2026, 329% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -4.0% | 10.0% | $17.23 | -89% |
| Base | 1.0% | 9.0% | $34.99 | -77% |
| Bull | 6.0% | 8.0% | $68.14 | -55% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $47.36 | $51.08 | $55.62 | $61.31 | $68.61 |
| 8.0% | $38.17 | $40.58 | $43.43 | $46.85 | $51.03 |
| 9.0% | $31.44 | $33.08 | $34.99 | $37.21 | $39.83 |
| 10.0% | $26.29 | $27.46 | $28.79 | $30.31 | $32.06 |
| 11.0% | $22.23 | $23.08 | $24.05 | $25.13 | $26.35 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Johnson Controls International plc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (1.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions