What is Illinois Tool Works Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Illinois Tool Works Inc's reported free cash flow gives $148.97 per share. The share price was $288.05 on November 10, 2026, 93% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.0% | 10.0% | $83.67 | -71% |
| Base | 5.0% | 9.0% | $148.97 | -48% |
| Bull | 10.0% | 8.0% | $270.90 | -6% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $195.70 | $209.92 | $227.30 | $249.03 | $276.97 |
| 8.0% | $160.86 | $170.09 | $180.99 | $194.06 | $210.05 |
| 9.0% | $135.39 | $141.70 | $148.97 | $157.46 | $167.49 |
| 10.0% | $115.97 | $120.46 | $125.54 | $131.35 | $138.05 |
| 11.0% | $100.69 | $103.98 | $107.65 | $111.79 | $116.47 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Illinois Tool Works Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions