What is Itron, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Itron, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $106.99 per share. The share price was $99.76 on November 10, 2026, 7% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -3.5% | 10.0% | $60.68 | -39% |
| Base | 1.5% | 9.0% | $106.99 | +7% |
| Bull | 6.5% | 8.0% | $197.18 | +98% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $139.33 | $149.06 | $160.95 | $175.81 | $194.92 |
| 8.0% | $115.31 | $121.62 | $129.07 | $138.02 | $148.95 |
| 9.0% | $97.71 | $102.02 | $106.99 | $112.80 | $119.66 |
| 10.0% | $84.25 | $87.32 | $90.79 | $94.76 | $99.35 |
| 11.0% | $73.63 | $75.88 | $78.39 | $81.22 | $84.42 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Itron, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (1.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions