What is Itron, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Itron, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $104.98 per share. The share price was $89.75 on September 25, 2026, 15% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -3.5% | 10.0% | $58.66 | -35% |
| Base | 1.5% | 9.0% | $104.98 | +17% |
| Bull | 6.5% | 8.0% | $195.17 | +117% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $137.32 | $147.05 | $158.93 | $173.80 | $192.90 |
| 8.0% | $113.30 | $119.61 | $127.06 | $136.01 | $146.94 |
| 9.0% | $95.69 | $100.00 | $104.98 | $110.79 | $117.65 |
| 10.0% | $82.23 | $85.30 | $88.78 | $92.75 | $97.33 |
| 11.0% | $71.62 | $73.87 | $76.38 | $79.21 | $82.41 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Itron, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (1.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions