What is Intuitive Surgical Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Intuitive Surgical Inc's reported free cash flow gives $234.50 per share. The share price was $405.18 on September 25, 2026, 73% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $145.47 | -64% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $234.50 | -42% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $400.27 | -1% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $301.90 | $322.92 | $348.61 | $380.72 | $422.00 |
| 8.0% | $251.26 | $264.89 | $281.00 | $300.33 | $323.96 |
| 9.0% | $214.42 | $223.74 | $234.50 | $247.04 | $261.87 |
| 10.0% | $186.49 | $193.11 | $200.63 | $209.21 | $219.11 |
| 11.0% | $164.63 | $169.49 | $174.92 | $181.03 | $187.95 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Intuitive Surgical Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (18.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions