What is Samsara Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Samsara Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $12.46 per share. The share price was $37.96 on September 25, 2026, 205% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $7.77 | -80% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $12.46 | -67% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $21.19 | -44% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $16.01 | $17.12 | $18.47 | $20.16 | $22.34 |
| 8.0% | $13.34 | $14.06 | $14.91 | $15.93 | $17.17 |
| 9.0% | $11.40 | $11.89 | $12.46 | $13.12 | $13.90 |
| 10.0% | $9.93 | $10.28 | $10.68 | $11.13 | $11.65 |
| 11.0% | $8.78 | $9.04 | $9.32 | $9.64 | $10.01 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Samsara Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (45.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions