What is Ingredion Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Ingredion Inc's reported free cash flow gives $132.27 per share. The share price was $91.95 on November 10, 2026, 30% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -1.0% | 10.0% | $80.36 | -13% |
| Base | 4.0% | 9.0% | $132.27 | +44% |
| Bull | 9.0% | 8.0% | $229.20 | +149% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $169.18 | $180.38 | $194.06 | $211.18 | $233.18 |
| 8.0% | $141.69 | $148.95 | $157.53 | $167.83 | $180.42 |
| 9.0% | $121.57 | $126.54 | $132.27 | $138.96 | $146.86 |
| 10.0% | $106.23 | $109.76 | $113.77 | $118.34 | $123.62 |
| 11.0% | $94.15 | $96.74 | $99.63 | $102.89 | $106.58 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Ingredion Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (3.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions