What is Illumina, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Illumina, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $123.34 per share. The share price was $270.00 on September 25, 2026, 119% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.0% | 10.0% | $78.55 | -71% |
| Base | 6.0% | 9.0% | $123.34 | -54% |
| Bull | 11.0% | 8.0% | $206.95 | -23% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $155.59 | $165.43 | $177.46 | $192.50 | $211.83 |
| 8.0% | $131.52 | $137.90 | $145.45 | $154.50 | $165.56 |
| 9.0% | $113.94 | $118.30 | $123.34 | $129.21 | $136.15 |
| 10.0% | $100.54 | $103.64 | $107.16 | $111.18 | $115.82 |
| 11.0% | $90.00 | $92.28 | $94.82 | $97.68 | $100.93 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Illumina, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions