What is International Business Machines Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on International Business Machines Corp's reported free cash flow gives $171.46 per share. The share price was $244.53 on November 10, 2026, 43% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -1.0% | 10.0% | $86.97 | -64% |
| Base | 4.0% | 9.0% | $171.46 | -30% |
| Bull | 9.0% | 8.0% | $329.23 | +35% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $231.53 | $249.76 | $272.04 | $299.90 | $335.71 |
| 8.0% | $186.79 | $198.61 | $212.58 | $229.35 | $249.84 |
| 9.0% | $154.05 | $162.14 | $171.46 | $182.34 | $195.20 |
| 10.0% | $129.08 | $134.83 | $141.35 | $148.79 | $157.38 |
| 11.0% | $109.42 | $113.63 | $118.34 | $123.64 | $129.65 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at International Business Machines Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions