What is International Business Machines Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on International Business Machines Corp's reported free cash flow gives $169.92 per share. The share price was $225.51 on September 25, 2026, 33% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -1.0% | 10.0% | $85.42 | -62% |
| Base | 4.0% | 9.0% | $169.92 | -25% |
| Bull | 9.0% | 8.0% | $327.68 | +45% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $229.98 | $248.21 | $270.50 | $298.35 | $334.16 |
| 8.0% | $185.24 | $197.06 | $211.04 | $227.80 | $248.29 |
| 9.0% | $152.51 | $160.59 | $169.92 | $180.80 | $193.66 |
| 10.0% | $127.53 | $133.28 | $139.80 | $147.24 | $155.83 |
| 11.0% | $107.87 | $112.08 | $116.79 | $122.09 | $128.10 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at International Business Machines Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions