What is Marinemax Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Marinemax Inc's reported free cash flow gives $4.11 per share. The share price was $52.44 on September 25, 2026, 1,177% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.0% | 10.0% | -$0.78 | -101% |
| Base | 9.0% | 9.0% | $4.11 | -92% |
| Bull | 14.0% | 8.0% | $13.23 | -75% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $7.69 | $8.79 | $10.14 | $11.83 | $13.99 |
| 8.0% | $5.01 | $5.72 | $6.57 | $7.58 | $8.82 |
| 9.0% | $3.05 | $3.54 | $4.11 | $4.76 | $5.54 |
| 10.0% | $1.56 | $1.91 | $2.31 | $2.76 | $3.28 |
| 11.0% | $0.40 | $0.65 | $0.94 | $1.26 | $1.62 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Marinemax Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions