What is Hawkins Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Hawkins Inc's reported free cash flow gives $105.69 per share. The share price was $129.03 on September 25, 2026, 22% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.5% | 10.0% | $61.15 | -53% |
| Base | 12.5% | 9.0% | $105.69 | -18% |
| Bull | 17.5% | 8.0% | $194.43 | +51% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $139.76 | $150.32 | $163.23 | $179.36 | $200.09 |
| 8.0% | $114.22 | $121.06 | $129.16 | $138.87 | $150.73 |
| 9.0% | $95.61 | $100.29 | $105.69 | $111.99 | $119.44 |
| 10.0% | $81.48 | $84.81 | $88.58 | $92.89 | $97.87 |
| 11.0% | $70.41 | $72.85 | $75.57 | $78.64 | $82.12 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Hawkins Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (12.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions