What is Hawkins Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Hawkins Inc's reported free cash flow gives $106.37 per share. The share price was $153.00 on November 10, 2026, 44% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.5% | 10.0% | $61.83 | -60% |
| Base | 12.5% | 9.0% | $106.37 | -30% |
| Bull | 17.5% | 8.0% | $195.11 | +28% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $140.44 | $151.00 | $163.90 | $180.03 | $200.77 |
| 8.0% | $114.90 | $121.74 | $129.83 | $139.54 | $151.41 |
| 9.0% | $96.29 | $100.97 | $106.37 | $112.67 | $120.12 |
| 10.0% | $82.15 | $85.48 | $89.26 | $93.57 | $98.54 |
| 11.0% | $71.08 | $73.52 | $76.25 | $79.32 | $82.80 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Hawkins Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (12.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions