What is Humana Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Humana Inc's reported free cash flow gives $20.73 per share. The share price was $397.93 on September 25, 2026, 1,820% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.0% | 10.0% | -$10.93 | -103% |
| Base | 11.0% | 9.0% | $20.73 | -95% |
| Bull | 16.0% | 8.0% | $79.76 | -80% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $44.20 | $51.45 | $60.32 | $71.40 | $85.65 |
| 8.0% | $26.61 | $31.32 | $36.88 | $43.55 | $51.70 |
| 9.0% | $13.80 | $17.02 | $20.73 | $25.06 | $30.17 |
| 10.0% | $4.06 | $6.35 | $8.94 | $11.91 | $15.32 |
| 11.0% | -$3.57 | -$1.89 | -$0.02 | $2.09 | $4.48 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Humana Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions