What is Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $203.09 per share.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $126.05 | - |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $203.09 | - |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $346.54 | - |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $261.42 | $279.60 | $301.83 | $329.62 | $365.34 |
| 8.0% | $217.60 | $229.40 | $243.33 | $260.06 | $280.50 |
| 9.0% | $185.72 | $193.79 | $203.09 | $213.95 | $226.77 |
| 10.0% | $161.55 | $167.28 | $173.78 | $181.21 | $189.78 |
| 11.0% | $142.63 | $146.84 | $151.54 | $156.82 | $162.81 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (40.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions