What is Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $204.84 per share. The share price was $33.78 on November 9, 2026, 84% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $127.80 | +278% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $204.84 | +506% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $348.29 | +931% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $263.16 | $281.35 | $303.58 | $331.36 | $367.09 |
| 8.0% | $219.35 | $231.14 | $245.08 | $261.81 | $282.25 |
| 9.0% | $187.47 | $195.53 | $204.84 | $215.69 | $228.52 |
| 10.0% | $163.29 | $169.03 | $175.53 | $182.95 | $191.53 |
| 11.0% | $144.38 | $148.58 | $153.28 | $158.57 | $164.56 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (40.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions