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What is Hormel Foods Corp worth?

With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Hormel Foods Corp's reported free cash flow gives $13.57 per share. The share price was $19.71 on September 25, 2026, 45% above that value.

Inputs from the filings

Free cash flow, fiscal 2025
$534.3M
Average free cash flow, last 5 years
$789.6M
Cash
$839.6M
balance sheet of July 26, 2026
Debt
$2.86B
balance sheet of July 26, 2026
Diluted shares, fiscal 2025
550,496,000
Revenue growth per year, last 5 years
4.7%

Three sets of assumptions

CaseGrowth yrs 1-5Growth yrs 6-10After year 10Discount rateValue per shareValue vs price
Bear-0.5%0.5%2.0%10.0%$7.00-64%
Base4.5%3.5%2.5%9.0%$13.57-31%
Bull9.5%6.5%3.0%8.0%$26.36+34%

Sensitivity: base case value per share

Discount rate down the side, growth after year 10 across the top. Everything else as in the base case.

1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.0%$18.25$19.67$21.40$23.58$26.37
8.0%$14.76$15.68$16.77$18.08$19.68
9.0%$12.21$12.84$13.57$14.42$15.42
10.0%$10.26$10.71$11.22$11.80$12.47
11.0%$8.73$9.06$9.43$9.84$10.31

Where the presets come from

Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Hormel Foods Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.

Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.

Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.

This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.

Adjust the assumptions

Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.

Adjust the assumptions

Hormel Foods Corp company page