What is Hormel Foods Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Hormel Foods Corp's reported free cash flow gives $13.57 per share. The share price was $19.71 on September 25, 2026, 45% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -0.5% | 10.0% | $7.00 | -64% |
| Base | 4.5% | 9.0% | $13.57 | -31% |
| Bull | 9.5% | 8.0% | $26.36 | +34% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $18.25 | $19.67 | $21.40 | $23.58 | $26.37 |
| 8.0% | $14.76 | $15.68 | $16.77 | $18.08 | $19.68 |
| 9.0% | $12.21 | $12.84 | $13.57 | $14.42 | $15.42 |
| 10.0% | $10.26 | $10.71 | $11.22 | $11.80 | $12.47 |
| 11.0% | $8.73 | $9.06 | $9.43 | $9.84 | $10.31 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Hormel Foods Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions